Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, who has gained fame for accurately predicting 9 out of the last 10 US presidential elections believes President Joe Biden has an edge in the 2024 election, even though current polls suggest he’s behind former President Donald Trump.
Using his “13 Keys to the White House” method, Lichtman has successfully forecasted the winner of nearly every US presidential election since 1984.
Lichtman, often referred to as the “Nostradamus of US presidential elections,” asserts that it’s too early to determine the likely outcome of the 2024 race between Biden and Trump, but emphasises that several factors would need to go wrong for one candidate to lose.
Lichtman’s prediction system evaluates the strength and performance of the White House party. If a candidate loses six of these “Keys,” Lichtman suggests they are likely to lose the election.
“I have not made a final prediction yet but I do have a model for 13 keys to the White House which have been correct since 1984… Right now a lot would have to go wrong for Joe Biden to lose this election. He’s at the moment down by just two keys,” Lichtman told NDTV in an interview.
What are the “13 Keys to the White House” method?
The “13 Keys to the White House” method evaluates the strength and performance of the incumbent party to predict the outcome of US presidential elections. Here’s a breakdown of the 13 keys:
- Party Mandate: After midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives compared to the previous midterm elections.
- Nomination Contest: The incumbent party faces no significant challenge to its nomination.
- Incumbency: The sitting president represents the incumbent party.
- Third-party Factor: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign that gains considerable traction or support during the election cycle.
- Short-term Economic Stability: The economy does not experience a recession during the period leading up to the election.
- Long-term Economic Growth: The real per capita economic growth matches or exceeds the average growth rate of the previous two presidential terms
- Policy Shift: The incumbent administration implements significant changes in national policy during its term in office.
- Social Stability: There is no prolonged social unrest or upheaval throughout the term of the incumbent administration.
- Scandal-Free: The incumbent administration remains free from major scandals.
- Foreign/Military Mishaps: No significant failures in foreign or military affairs during the term of the incumbent administration.
- Foreign/Military Triumphs: The incumbent administration achieves significant successes in foreign or military matters.
- Incumbent Charm: The incumbent party’s candidate possesses charisma or enjoys national hero status.
- Challenger Appeal: This key is met if the candidate from the opposing party lacks charisma or national hero status.
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